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Do you think Wildstar could surpass WoW in subscribers?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Zigzak, Jun 1, 2013.

  1. Flannan

    Flannan Cupcake

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    Agreed, good companies/games that start with a decent sized/good, a lot of them seem to when hitting a certain plateau of customers will start to think more about monetary gain then what the customer wants and start to go down hill from there. I felt like that's one thing that happened to WoW.
    So I say no, I hope Wildstar does not get as many subs as WoW. Not saying I dont want Wildstar to become a popular/good game, I just don't want to see it get ruined by greed.
  2. Wubzorz

    Wubzorz Cupcake

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    The fact that threads like this even exist ensure people dwell on the delusion that subscriber base is sign of game quality.
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  3. Bomoo

    Bomoo Cupcake

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    Don't jinx eet.
  4. Dave Bowman

    Dave Bowman New Cupcake

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    As most people who like to watch the MMO horse race know, sub numbers are tricky.

    With WoW, you have to distinguish between Asian subs and NA/EU subs. Asian (mostly Chinese) subs aren't subs at all, but a pay-as-you-go model, meaning if you spend two hours a week playing at a net café, you pay for those eight hours, not for the month. It works out to lower revenue. WoW has about 2-3 million Western subs.

    TOR never released in China and was actually blocked in China for much of its rise and fall. Think about it.

    With EVE, there are way more accounts than people, because the game only lets you train one pilot per account at a time. So the 'whales' of EVE, the hardcore players with lots of specialised pilot alts, shell out way more. And some people do not pay for accounts at all, but instead are good enough at making in-game currency to buy PLEX for it which keeps them subbed. EVE probably has something like 100k actual players.

    Of course, F2P and hybrid models (Wildstar?) have tons of players, and it is hard to sort out what counts as an actual sub-equivalent. The 'whale' who spends $360 on everything in the cash shop and quits after a month is the same as the die-hard fan who played for two years, except he's not contributing to the game's social core which is also an asset.

    ...so really, what I am saying is, this thread is a bit pointless difficult to approach rigorously.

    Oh, yeah: WoW had the perfect storm, sure. It got the MMO out of the nerd's basement and into the mainstream, right, great. But I don't know why we insist on dividing the WoW pie and pretending that the only customer Wildstar will get has to be poached from another MMO. People seriously underestimate market elasticity. It is not clear to me at all that a glut of newcomers aren't ready to start playing an MMO if the right MMO comes along.

    Personally, I'd rather convert Farmville moms than Goons, PL or most of the WoW HM raider crowd.
  5. SiegaPlays

    SiegaPlays "That" Cupcake

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    hehe, I have a couple of Farmville aunts and they play all the time and like to share a lot - not just game info. So if you want social, there is the target group :sneaky:
  6. Daynejah

    Daynejah Cupcake

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    Nope-I don't think anyone will ever have 12 million subscribers again. There's only so many people who play MMOs-and the market is uber saturated. I'd say if it were going to charge a sub Destiny could have a chance but no sub there... I'm hoping Destiny (since I imagine it will at least somewhat bring in the Halo kids...) will be that game that lets those who have always been intimidated/heldstigmaagainst realize MMOs can be amazing as long as you have self discipline.
  7. Kalmander

    Kalmander Well-Known Cupcake

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    I'd have to say no as well. But it does not need to. It needs enough subscribers to be profitable, and that will be good enough.
  8. Gronky

    Gronky Cupcake-About-Town

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    It can't because Blizzard is going to release Titan in two years or so. But it really depends on the game content and how much different Titan is going to be from W*. W* can't hit so many subscribers in just two years. Also looking at success of Diablo 3 it won't matter how bad Titan is, it will still have millions followers (me probably being one of them unless W* really hit the mark).
  9. SniperCT

    SniperCT Cupcake-About-Town

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    I think half the reason WoW still has so many subs is because the game is still fun for most people, and the other half is that there's a lot of people who have so much time invested in their characters they're reluctant to jump ship for long.

    I also think that WoW does a lot of little insidious little features and things (animation quality, the feel of the game, things going on in the backgroun, etc) that you don't miss until you try other games.

    I loved SWTOR, but the game world felt so dead. Same with Lotro (though it wasn't as bad. For awhile I bounced back and forth between lotro and WoW). The animations and movement wasn't as fluid, and that didn't help. All these little factors add up for people like me.

    I really hope Wildstar hits all those things and grows because of it. Their movement devspeak had me ridiculously excited. >.> It feels like they understand that in a way that no other dev team has.
  10. Ceodoc

    Ceodoc Cupcake-About-Town

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    I dont believe for a minute Carbine does'nt want as many wowers as possible, just like SWToR did.
    They have learned that you just don't throw your weight around saying it.

    But, and again I am sure this is more than just a fluke.......the timing is perfect.
    WoW subs "are" this time in decline.

    The trick will be to get the players before Destiny....don't underestimate Bungie's upcoming title-to interest the MMO crowd.
    I am a little perplexed at the Carbine marketing team, the PR pushes seem out of line with the groundswell.
    CB2 and onwards, say to 6 or even 7, then open and raid + PvP testing does'nt stack up with good release dates this year?
    My guess is we will see WS released early 2014.

    Doc
  11. epiksheep

    epiksheep New Cupcake

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    The issue with the right amount of content is that it will actually be more difficult because the speed at which hardcore players go through content is much faster now then it was when WoW first took its place on the throne. Even during lich king the top end players were clearing all the content so fast that they were actually complaining that they had to wait a month before anything new came out. Wildstar can be a great game, it could be the best version of the MMO to date, but that may not even be fast enough for some.
  12. Alverad

    Alverad Well-Known Cupcake

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    Carbine has already taken that into consideration. The magic they can do with their game engine, allows for real time changes in environment, as such, substantial changes to the encounters. If they will stick with the weekly/bi-weekly schedule of changes, 7-14 days is all you have, until you're faced with a dfferent challange. Weekly score boards instead of world/realm firsts. There will not be much point in no lifing for 7 days straight to beat everyone else, as few weeks down the line, when the encounter setup will be exactly like the one you've beaten, someone else might come in, beat your timing on it, and get goodies and glory, just as you did. If you don't keep on rolling through out the tier, you will not be much of a world class guild. Going for that one kill, means nothing, going for all the variations of it through the whole duration of the patch, is what will constitude a good guild, raiding wise.

    All that apart, it's a somewhat healthier level of gaming across the board, for the most competitive ones. Noone can sustain 3 months straight of 6-7 hours per raid, daily. Followed by 3 months straight of 6-7 hours per raid, daily, followed by...... :p

    It also opens up the competition to a much larger set of guilds consisting of people with lives evolving around real life just as much as around gaming.
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  13. Winzhi

    Winzhi New Cupcake

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    Do we know what kinda numbers Carbine is working with here? Are they over confident like most MMO's released the last decade or are they hanging around the 100,000 mark?

    The funny thing is that before WoW, most MMOs probably didn't even have 100,000 players. I'd maybe even guess that 50,000 would have been pretty huge for them. But WoW brought that number up into the millions, and too many MMO companies wanted to get similar numbers themselves, pretty much killing their own game.

    HOPEFULLY this lesson has been realized by now for most companies who are either currently in the MMO industry or who are looking to get into it. WoW was a perfect storm, and the MMO market is too saturated for another breakthrough MMO unless it does something that far surpasses what most MMOs do right now.
  14. Azhdaha

    Azhdaha Cupcake-About-Town

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    As long as incoming revenue sufficiently exceeds their expenditures, to the point where they can comfortable bank a bit for rainy days and continue adding features to the game over the course of its life, I'll be thrilled.

    For all the cash WoW generated, how much of it honestly got poured back into WoW itself?
  15. Dyraele

    Dyraele "That" Cupcake

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    If you are asking if they will surpass the most WoW ever had, I doubt it. So many more MMOs now then there were at the time. If you are just saying surpass WoW at any point in time, yes. I think WS will take subs from WoW and will eventually pass them in a couple years.

    Just my opinion.
  16. Slashrawr

    Slashrawr New Cupcake

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    Okay, I'll bite.. even though I really wish people would wait and play the game before we climb on the hype-train to crazy town. So many people on here immediately say no, it's not possible. The fact is, if penultimate success could only be achieved once the real world would be a very different place. Capitalism and human ingenuity teaches us differently. Seriously, there is no way anyone could ever make a better, more appealing vacuum.

    The easiest gaming example in recent years is the MOBA genre. By the same logic, no one will ever unseat League Of Legends. Prior to that, I imagine there were people saying there is no way you will unseat classic DoTA. Well my friends, they may have been the first to appeal to hundreds of millions, but that doesn't mean they will be the last.

    TL;DR: If you make a product that appeals to millions, guess what, millions will be appealed.
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  17. Drarorm

    Drarorm Cupcake-About-Town

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    Never say never ^^.
  18. XxxVoidxxX

    XxxVoidxxX New Cupcake

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    i think it is possible at launch but i dont think it will have the longevity that wow has had ... one can only hope
  19. Dedlaw

    Dedlaw Cupcake-About-Town

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    I doubt it.

    WoW had the market cornered and was pretty much THE option for MMORPG gaming.

    Now the market is spread out too much for it to be likely that one game will gather that large amount of players again

    With that being said,

    [​IMG]
  20. Alverad

    Alverad Well-Known Cupcake

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    Couldn't care less if they do - what I'd like to see happen, is for WS to surpass WoW in quality of every game aspect.
  21. Zellfel

    Zellfel Cupcake-About-Town

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    "Could" - Yeah sure, if the game is developed to hit the amazing expectations a lot of us have for it.

    Will it? I don't think so. Wildstar appeals to a different crowd of MMO players. The entire game has a very "niche" feel to it, instead of the broad scope that WoW tackled. The graphic presentation, humor and 40 man-raid content speak volumes about the demographic the game is aimed at.

    That said, I would love for it to be amazingly successful. Then everyone here could laugh as we flex our Wildstar-Hipster muscles.
    Grafficane likes this.

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