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Species Demographic Predictions

Discussion in 'WildStar Races' started by Chris StarShade, Feb 19, 2014.

  1. Chris StarShade

    Chris StarShade New Cupcake

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    First, my predictions, then my reasoning for arriving at these predictions...
    These predictions assume the game will achieve WoW-status, and will have been gold for about a year or so.


    1. Exile Humans
    2. Aurin
    3. Cassians
    4. Chua
    5. Mechari
    6. Mordesh
    7. Granok
    8. Draken

    As for my certainty levels, I believe the following...

    Aurin and Exile Humans may switch places.

    Mechari and Mordesh may switch places.

    Granok and Draken may switch places.

    This is based on what I perceive to by the likely preferences of the players based on my previous observations of World of Warcraft (specifically WoW vanilla, as the expansions added too many factors that a fresh game will not have, such as novelty value, exclusive classes, etc.)

    Exile Humans and Cassians will both attract the "I Always Play Human" crowd who seeks the familiarity of the most human-like of races, in spite of being given all sorts of interesting choices. This particular player type always gravitates to the most familiar.
    A combination of the perceived "Good Guy" factor mixed with the low-information player confusing Cassians for non-humans will lead to Exile Humans being in the #1 slot.

    Aurin knock the Cassians down to #3 because they are humanlike, but exotic. They fit some very popular archetypes, such as their nature-mindedness which will attract players that prefer playing down-to-earth races such as elves (or in WoW, specifically night elves). They also tap those players drawn to animesque characters, what with their kemonomimi traits.
    Since someone elsewhere on this site mentioned furries, the Aurin may attract them, but only those who are disposed toward feline/canine/vulpine/rabbit/mouse types, assuming the humanlike qualities of the Aurin do not serve as a turn-off.
    Those attracted to the animesque will be a far greater number gravitating to the aurin.

    Cassians will attract a significant number of the "I Always Play Human" type, particularly those that are smart enough to read the description and understand they are human. Those attracted to Evil Empire archetypes will be especially attracted to Cassians. The Cassian numbers are driven down somewhat by the "Obviously Evil" aspect of the Dominion as a side, but that is the only significant mitigating factor.

    Chua will attract players who enjoy pint-size characters. This demographic should not be underestimated! A large number of players will select Chua mainly because they are smallest. The fact that they are comically explosive about their smallness gives them even more bonus points than your average tarutaru! They are also more likely to attract the aforementioned "furry" types.
    The fact this game will include PvP will also cause Chua to attract certain semi-munchkin types who are convinced playing a smaller character gives them an edge in PvP by providing less for an enemy player to click on.

    The Mechari is the biggest mystery in the game. It is difficult to predict what their overall numbers will be, and if I get one race Totally Wrong in these guesstimations, the Mechari would probably be it. There are very few successful MMOs to observe which included a complete robot choice. Robot-lovers who previously might have played who-knows-what race are now able to select Asimov's nightmare. This is a completely unknown quantity. The only known quantity I see for them is they will attract players who want to play the Big Guy and prefer the "Bad Guys." I am guessing, however, that the Usual Suspects who prefer humanish-appearing, pretty, or cutesy races will still outnumber the Mechari, so I am sticking them in the #5 slot.

    The Mordesh are also going to be an enigma, but not because they are an unknown quantity. Rather, because placing a race of this nature on the Exile ("Good guys") side will cause the sort of players that would pick a race like this to be a tad on the conflicted side. Mordesh are essentially Undead Space Elves, which means they will attract players who like to play the "zombie" choice, as well as players who like the "elf" choice but don't want to be tree-huggers. However, this sort of Darker and Edgier necromantic-ish preference rarely goes hand-in-hand with the "Good Guy" side. That said, I guesstimate that some players who might otherwise choose the Dominion will find themselves picking Mordesh because they prefer that aesthetic.

    And so we are down to the last two races...
    I am not 100% certain whether the Granok or the Draken will be dead last. At the moment, I am guessing the #7 slot will be occupied by the Granok.
    The Granok cover the Big Tough Guy motif and will attract players who want to be both the Big Guy and play as the Good Guys. Their overall Monstrous form means they will be in a minority, though.

    The Draken are in a similar situation. Although they have a demonic-suggesting appearance, I do not think Players Who Want Demons will necessarily choose the Draken over, perhaps, the Mordesh, or even the Cassians since the Draken are not -actually- demons. They will, however, attract players who want to play a Proud Warrior Race. That said, observations of the Orc demographics on WoW lead me to believe that most players' tastes will leave the Draken in an unfortunate minority position. Furthermore, they got the "Bad Guy" strike going against them for population values.

    But like I said, I can't say with 100% whether it will be Draken or Granok in the Dead Last position.


    As for both sides, I predict that on PvE servers, the Exiles will outnumber the Dominion at LEAST 1.5 to 1, but probably a higher value. This is due to most players' preferences to play as the Good Guys.

    The kind of player who prefers PvP servers has a higher probability of wanting to also be the Bad Guys, so on PvP servers, the factions are more likely to be balanced 1:1. Individual servers will vary, of course.


    Do you agree with my assessment? Do you think I am dead wrong? Do you have your own theory on what races will be The Most/Least Popular?

    Reply and give us your thoughts.
  2. Weeablade

    Weeablade New Cupcake

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    I find this an accurate speculation, although I'd have more certainty that granok will be the least played race. Which is a bit of a shame, but the same could be said for all of the non-human races in the same position.
  3. Cyclops08

    Cyclops08 New Cupcake

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    Chua are the smallest race, Hardore PvPers always go for the little guys since they are harder to hit.
    My prediction is they will swarm and take over the Dominion side...I say they will be #1 for Dominion.

    ~~ that said, I have no real reputation for accurate predictions. So I'm hopefully wrong. But the thought does keep me awake at night.
  4. Domi Dayglow

    Domi Dayglow Super Cupcake

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    I believe it's always been stated that the chua have the same sized hit boxes. It will more be a matter of people not noticing the short little vermin. Though I have also seen a few pvp videos on youtube where all enemy players flash bright red too. I'm not sure if that would be a UI option or a addon the person was using.
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  5. Cyclops08

    Cyclops08 New Cupcake

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    Dang. and here I thought I was all jiggy with it.
  6. Satarn

    Satarn Cupcake-About-Town

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    Labels, labels everywhere!

    You forget about class choices and faction restrictions being a factor as well.
    And have you even seen the female Draken?
  7. Chris StarShade

    Chris StarShade New Cupcake

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    Each race has access to enough options by themselves that I do not think class options will be especially significant on race selection in this game, unlike earlier WoW where part of the Tauren and Night Elf populations were due to people who wanted to play druids.

    I'd give you more pointless analyses, but my brain is presently in a funk.

    And don't worry, Cyclops08. I predict Chua will be the SECOND most populace Dominion race. Unless the unknown quanta of Mechari bump them out of that position, of which I am skeptical due to the popularity of cute psychopaths involved in mad science.
    I strongly suspect Cassians will outnumber other Dominion with an overall portion of 30-50% the dominion population. This is due mainly to the combined might of Human-preference and Pretty-preference players. They also exude an Evil Empire archetype moreso than the other races of the dominion, which tends to be especially attractive to Bad Guy-preference players.

    That said, if things go the way I think they will go, you will probably still have at least one chua in every party. Good luck!


    (Added with Edit)

    It occurs to me that my predictions for race demographics kinda fit the lore to an extent. Moreso for the exiles than for the Dominion, but still somewhat for the Dominion.
    Most of the Exiles should be on or near Nexus at this point, as they are trying to make it their new home. The exile humans have probably been growing in number ever since the time they left Cassus and the aurin are probably a majority of the evacuated population of Arboria. This puts those two as most populated pretty spot on.

    Meanwhile, the Granok are not the entire population, but merely those that had been exiled for the sin of using Dominion weapons against the Dominion instead of just clobbering them with their naked fists. This could easily be a minority of the population, hence their lower numbers make sense.

    Likewise, the Mordesh are a dying people. Those available for play are just those that managed to stay sane long enough to get the semi-cure to their contagion. Hence, lower population than the remaining exiles.

    Meanwhile, the majority of the Dominion is nowhere near Nexus and is busy doing Dominion business elsewhere. The Dominion on Nexus is just an expeditionary force, so any population numbers are conceivable.

    Your thoughts?
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  8. Domi Dayglow

    Domi Dayglow Super Cupcake

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    The Exile population portions do make sense given histories. In raw numbers, the Dominion greatly outnumber the Exiles. However, the Exile population is concentrated on Nexus. The Dominion can't exactly blast them from orbit without risking damage to Eldan artifacts.

    Aurin and humans should be the most populace and I think the starting numbers are launch will kind of reflect this.

    Mordesh? I honestly think they will be like the 2nd if not 3rd most popular. Everyone loves a space zombie! Even though yes, they are a dying race. They're not exactly reproducing like rabbits anymore.

    Granok are still mercenaries. At least, the ones who wandered off their planet. It's entirely possible they could find themselves working for smugglers and other groups who pay better than the Exiles. So there's a lore reason for an even lower population.

    Also, Aurins and Mordesh share something unique as races as far as the Dominion sees them. They're condemned. The Aurin race was condemned for helping the Exiles. Their planet was taken away and they were likely pressed into slavery. The Mordesh are condemned under the Space Zombie Law. The only reason the Dominion probably didn't just blast their planet to ash is because they decided it would be more profitable to let the mordesh die off, the loot their cities for their technology.

    In either case, neither the Aurin or Mordesh can just wander around the galaxy without drawing a lot of attention to themselves. Thus more reason to group with the Exiles.

    Somewhere on the web there was a website of Wildstar demographics. I've been looking and looking for a couple of days, but still haven't found it.
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  9. BlueDragon18

    BlueDragon18 Cupcake-About-Town

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    Truly. The female Draken can look really hot!
  10. Chris StarShade

    Chris StarShade New Cupcake

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    I partially based my predictions on what happened to populations on WoW vanilla. The undead WERE the most populace horde race, but I believe that was mainly due to people with Human Preference and a "Bad Guy" preference that outweighed their Human preference.

    I would suspect that a WoW player who favored undead during vanilla would probably lean toward either Mordesh or Cassians depending on what combination of preferences led to them playing undead.

    It really boils down to guesstimating the number of people who hold particular preferences.

    Look up wildstar census on google. I am not sure where the numbers are coming from, but the last I checked the Aurin were the most popular species. I take that with an extremely large grain of salt though. I don't think the population numbers will gravitate to where I am predicting until the game becomes mature. Until then, the only thing I am reasonably sure of are that Aurin, Human, Cassian, and Chua will be in the top 4. What spot in the top 4 for each is anyone's guess until the game goes gold and matures.

    That said, it is conceivable the game will never "mature" the way I am imagining. I am imagining a circumstance where the game is about as popular as WoW was a year after its release.
  11. Domi Dayglow

    Domi Dayglow Super Cupcake

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    Yes! That was the website I was having such a hard time remembering.

    http://watchwildstar.com/census

    Anyway, to save people time, according to the census the current population numbers from the polls are

    Exiles:
    31.3% Aurin
    27.5% Mordesh
    27.2% Human
    14% Granok


    Dominion:
    29.3% Cassian
    27.5% Chua
    27.3% Mechari
    16% Draken

    These numbers can also help us assume something else. Tanks will be slightly less common on the Exile side and thus in higher demand. Using the census poll information, we can infer that most tanks will be engineers (about 42%) or warriors (36.7%). Aurins being the most common race on the Exile side only have access to the Stalker for tanking which is looking to be the least used class for tanks. The votes for aurin players show the majority will be espers and spellslingers with only about 26% perferring stalkers and, likely, most of those will be DPS.
  12. Chris StarShade

    Chris StarShade New Cupcake

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    The numbers on that site are extremely preliminary and likely do not reflect what it will be like when the game goes gold. I'd bet my breeches that human and cassian populations will add another 10% to each.
  13. Dirty Outlaw

    Dirty Outlaw Cupcake-About-Town

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    Issac Asimov nightmare hmm would be a good name for my Mechari
  14. Chris StarShade

    Chris StarShade New Cupcake

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    Doesn't that site allow you to search by class as well? Bear in mind that class selections are not likely to be uniform across races. Regardless of race demographics, classes are probably going to be more Stalker - Spellslinger - Esper - Engineer - Warrior - Medic.

    That is my guess for popularity anyway. If this were a fantasy game, I'd guesstimate warrior at closer to #1, but since this is sci-fi, I imagine most people won't be in it for swords. You never know though, and I am much less certain of this than I am of my race guesses.
  15. Domi Dayglow

    Domi Dayglow Super Cupcake

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    It does and that's what I used in the search.

    Yes, it always seems that the stealth class is super popular. Especially in the beginnings. Though I am kind of curious how that will hold up after the first six months. I still think the Medic will gain momentum as time goes in. It just seems like such a good balance between mobility, damage, survivability, and healing.
  16. Felion

    Felion Cupcake-About-Town

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    Bearing in mind the class limitation to different races, and having scanned through as much materials as I can about the running/walking animations of various races, I think I've got an idea of what to expect come launch.

    First of all, your points make sense and I'd agree with you, if not for the added information that character animation and customization introduces. I'll note down below a few points that are significant enough to alter the race selection decision.

    Faces:

    1. Human Female (both Exile and Cassian) can customize to have good looking faces, one problem is that you can't get pale skin without freckles. Plenty of Goofy though.
    2. Human Males (both Exile and Cassian) are limited in their eye and nose shapes, in general you can't make a smooth looking human male without big round eyes and arched nose. Plenty of goofy though.
    3. Mordesh Male has plenty of sarcastic exaggerated faces and cool scary faces, surprisingly they have two or three faces that can be customized into smooth-looking faces. With the right hair and beard the result can be quite surprising.
    4. Mordesh Female has like one face that you can work with to get smooth looking face. Again, scary faces a plenty.
    5. Granok Male, well there's only so much you can do in terms of smoothing it out, but having distinct rock-ish features and hard outlines can really be a plus.
    6. Granok Female, let's just say I tried to look for one that doesn't remind me of a drag queen but failed.
    7. Mechari Male really don't have any face that remotely resembles organic beings, the closest one looks like a skeleton. But, then again like the Granok the emphasis is not really on the details of the face, and that distinctive robot face can be a plus.
    8. Mechari Female again surprises with two faces that can be made quite organic and smooth looking, and of course plenty of very robotic faces.
    9. Draken Male has one or two faces that can be customized into somewhat smooth-looking, but with no hair to match. Arguably though, the beastly look is their bread and butter so the lacking of a smooth face isn't crippling.
    10. Draken Female --- I tried.
    11. Aurin is Aurin.
    12. Chua is Chua.

    Run/Walk Animation:

    1. Human Female (both Exile and Cassian) runs like a wild child and walks like no one's watching, for that matter stands as if no one's around too. Will be good if you have a tom-boy or care-free setting to your character, OR that you just like the generally comic style of the race. You won't be able to get classy out of these though, even as Cassian.
    2. Mordesh Female, everyone should make one and watch her run. Need not to say more. It turns head and turns decisions. The classy/sexy lady of the Exile.
    3. Mechari Female walk, same thing. The classy/sexy lady of the Dominion.
    4. The males are all pretty decent, each with their own flair.
    5. Aurin is Aurin.
    6. Chua is Chua.

    So, combining these points with the archetype of each race which goes before this list, I am predicting the population as:

    1. Aurin, mostly female, but many males too. They've got faces, they've got good run/walk/standby animation, and given their lore/niche hype, really can't go wrong. Plus, all three classes available to Aurin seems to be best fit for Aurin in the Exile, in other words if you want to play a Stalker/Spellslinger/Esper as an exile, the choice of being an Aurin must have at least crossed your mind.
    2. Mordesh, mostly male until everyone catches on the female running animation. Medic and Engineer both fits well with the Mordesh lore and I suspect many Mordesh will be them.
    3. Mechari, a bit more male than female. Embodiment of the Dominion, unique and well planned animation/poses, exaggerated body proportions, able to become any class except esper.
    4. Cassian, because the Dominion don't have an Aurin, the most smooth looking has to come from the Cassian humans. Also, if you want to be an Esper in the dominion there's either Chua or Cassian, and Chua isn't for everyone.
    5. Exile Human, because someone may like to become a medic without being huge like the Mordesh and Granok, or someone may like to become an esper without being yet another Aurin.
    6. Draken, almost exclusively male, and mostly stalkers, self explanatory.
    7. Chua, lots of Espers I'd imagine.
    8. Granok, almost exclusively male. All three classes that it has fits its image quite well so this may go up, but for balancing two sides I'm putting them last.

    Overall though, I can see that exile outnumber the Dominion by a noticeable margin. Mechari and Mordesh share similar traits/niche/roles and hence expected popularity, Cassian and Exile humans are by default similar, Draken and Granok are both pinned for their masculinity and relatively inflexible setting, but the major difference comes from Aurin vs Chua. To start off, Aurin has two genders available for the picking, Chua has only one. Also, it's really not hard to see that the Aurin population will be overwhelming especially when compared against Chua.

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